Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–15 on winners spread MAE 10.5 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ohio State @ Indiana +2.2 142.4 58% 51–67 ✓
Binghamton @ UAlbany +2.5 123.3 59% 88–79 ✗
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +3.5 145.3 62% 94–78 ✗
Bryant @ Wagner +20.2 139.8 97% 81–84 ✓
Saint Francis @ St. Francis Brooklyn +1.8 143.7 56% 53–70 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Long Island University +7.5 142.7 75% 57–74 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +6.9 121.1 74% 68–82 ✓
UIC @ Wright State +4.1 146.0 64% 72–90 ✓
UT Arlington @ Georgia State +5.2 142.4 68% 70–63 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Troy -0.1 137.5 50% 59–69 ✗
Maryland @ Illinois +17.1 142.7 94% 64–76 ✓
Long Beach State @ UCLA +26.6 156.5 99% 78–96 ✓
Little Rock @ UL Monroe +9.6 157.1 81% 72–80 ✓
Seattle U @ Chicago State -8.2 134.6 23% 93–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ UTSA +2.5 132.7 59% 74–73 ✗
UAB @ North Texas +3.4 120.5 62% 69–63 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Rice -1.7 156.1 44% 61–65 ✗
Grand Canyon @ UT Rio Grande Valley -5.1 141.8 32% 84–70 ✓
Sam Houston @ Tarleton State +8.1 122.3 77% 64–75 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Abilene Christian +11.8 140.6 86% 64–58 ✗
Arkansas State @ Louisiana +7.3 138.4 75% 77–83 ✓
App State @ South Alabama +10.4 133.8 83% 72–64 ✗
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas +2.4 161.5 58% 81–66 ✗
North Dakota @ Omaha +3.4 151.2 62% 82–98 ✓
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word -14.9 146.4 9% 87–56 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Belmont +25.0 163.8 99% 62–102 ✓
Iowa @ Wisconsin +1.0 151.4 54% 78–87 ✓
Washington State @ Colorado -2.7 133.4 40% 78–83 ✗
Montana State @ Idaho -6.9 149.5 27% 92–72 ✓
Montana @ Eastern Washington +6.4 141.9 72% 90–78 ✗
Pacific @ BYU +22.5 135.8 98% 51–73 ✓
SMU @ Cincinnati +4.2 136.7 65% 60–77 ✓
Washington @ Utah +12.6 145.8 87% 74–68 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Riverside +8.2 128.3 77% 51–59 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP -2.1 138.9 43% 64–52 ✓
USC @ California -5.4 128.9 31% 77–63 ✓
Houston Christian @ LSU New Orleans +9.5 145.4 81% 65–81 ✓
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word -0.8 147.6 47% 83–80 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +8.2 136.4 77% 66–58 ✗
Lehigh @ Army +9.3 145.9 80% 55–77 ✓
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +2.0 151.4 57% 83–78 ✗
Marquette @ Georgetown -2.3 157.6 42% 92–64 ✓
Kent State @ Ohio +10.1 126.3 82% 72–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.