I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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68–27 on winners spread MAE 8.8 95 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland @ Indiana +3.1 136.8 69% 53–65 ✓
Mercer @ Georgia +7.9 135.2 77% 69–80 ✓
Rider @ Siena -6.9 130.2 26% 65–67 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Niagara -0.7 132.1 48% 72–67 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Manhattan +3.1 142.4 65% 74–75 ✓
Iona @ Fairfield -0.7 146.2 46% 78–67 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Canisius +5.0 146.9 72% 73–93 ✓
George Washington @ South Carolina +5.6 146.8 72% 67–89 ✓
Bryant @ Brown +2.5 143.1 55% 69–66 ✗
Norfolk State @ VCU +12.3 137.3 86% 63–60 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Bethune-Cookman -2.7 142.8 36% 82–96 ✗
St. John's @ West Virginia +0.5 138.7 50% 79–73 ✗
Arkansas State @ Little Rock +8.0 158.4 78% 66–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ UAB +8.7 141.3 77% 85–82 ✗
Towson @ South Dakota State +1.2 130.8 57% 48–61 ✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU +11.2 145.6 85% 66–73 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Troy +1.6 138.4 52% 60–83 ✓
Iowa State @ DePaul -10.2 137.7 20% 99–80 ✓
Purdue @ Northwestern -5.9 137.7 26% 88–92 ✗
UConn @ Kansas +4.1 146.0 61% 65–69 ✓
Fresno State @ BYU +16.0 143.5 86% 56–85 ✓
North Dakota @ Cal State Fullerton +2.9 142.5 59% 54–64 ✓
Wyoming @ Portland +4.1 144.0 65% 70–81 ✓
San Diego State @ UC San Diego -6.2 146.5 25% 63–62 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Boise State -0.1 130.7 51% 60–63 ✗
Notre Dame @ Miami +10.6 142.6 87% 49–62 ✓
Syracuse @ Virginia +7.7 127.4 79% 62–84 ✓
Bucknell @ Penn State +13.8 139.8 87% 76–67 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis -6.1 141.7 31% 71–55 ✓
Marquette @ Wisconsin -0.2 139.7 42% 64–75 ✗
Georgia State @ Kennesaw State -0.9 156.4 41% 77–88 ✗
Holy Cross @ Central Connecticut +11.5 138.9 86% 67–78 ✓
Lehigh @ UMBC +3.6 151.3 58% 87–92 ✓
South Florida @ Massachusetts +14.5 146.7 87% 56–66 ✓
Presbyterian @ VMI +1.3 142.1 50% 75–71 ✗
Florida State @ North Carolina +10.1 156.3 84% 70–78 ✓
Drexel @ Villanova +5.1 125.8 73% 57–55 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ North Texas +22.3 128.7 90% 48–79 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Evansville +8.8 148.4 84% 89–91 ✓
Valparaiso @ Belmont +9.6 147.8 85% 68–77 ✓
Indiana State @ Bradley +3.5 148.9 67% 85–77 ✗
Cornell @ Lafayette -7.8 145.5 20% 79–71 ✓
Saint Francis @ American University +10.9 138.3 82% 75–73 ✗
Bellarmine @ Ball State +3.6 134.5 63% 58–67 ✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris -0.6 143.5 46% 71–57 ✓
Delaware @ Ohio +5.4 146.7 69% 73–74 ✓
Furman @ Princeton +18.6 151.2 90% 69–70 ✓
North Alabama @ Kansas State +14.5 155.6 87% 74–75 ✓
High Point @ North Florida -1.0 151.3 43% 86–79 ✓
Memphis @ Ole Miss +2.8 138.5 62% 77–80 ✓
Old Dominion @ Northeastern +6.0 146.0 72% 68–81 ✓
The Citadel @ North Carolina A&T -6.1 145.9 27% 85–68 ✓
Boston University @ Sacred Heart +6.2 137.8 72% 70–49 ✗
Grambling @ Dayton +22.0 141.0 90% 46–76 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Buffalo -8.7 136.4 20% 80–65 ✓
Binghamton @ Stonehill -3.2 148.3 37% 79–64 ✓
Duke @ Georgia Tech -4.0 146.4 40% 68–72 ✗
Colgate @ Arizona +21.8 141.1 90% 55–82 ✓
San José State @ Montana -0.6 134.9 42% 58–75 ✗
Jacksonville @ Georgia Southern -2.0 147.3 38% 81–79 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ North Carolina Central +6.9 136.9 72% 85–82 ✗
Wright State @ Davidson +4.0 152.8 66% 73–82 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +9.0 139.7 86% 58–69 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland +5.4 147.8 74% 98–77 ✗
Nicholls @ Louisiana Tech +12.6 141.7 87% 55–68 ✓
UT Martin @ McNeese +17.2 156.8 89% 80–91 ✓
Saint Louis @ Southern Illinois +9.8 142.7 79% 62–101 ✓
Wagner @ Stony Brook +5.6 131.9 67% 60–59 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ NJIT +1.0 154.6 48% 71–68 ✗
Michigan @ Oregon +6.9 152.3 75% 83–86 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Kentucky +16.4 151.5 88% 80–73 ✗
Illinois @ Rutgers +3.1 130.4 66% 76–58 ✗
NC State @ Boston College +5.1 145.8 74% 84–78 ✗
Missouri State @ Drake +3.8 146.4 68% 57–74 ✓
Winthrop @ Coastal Carolina -4.9 146.4 33% 90–87 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Northern Colorado +1.0 146.7 53% 71–75 ✓
Bowling Green @ Southern Indiana -2.1 136.9 38% 54–52 ✓
Harvard @ Loyola Chicago +1.3 143.1 51% 53–75 ✓
Lipscomb @ UCF +5.6 151.6 72% 57–72 ✓
Pacific @ Northern Arizona +9.0 132.6 79% 58–78 ✓
Pennsylvania @ La Salle -2.0 148.9 43% 92–93 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Vanderbilt +6.2 147.1 73% 59–78 ✓
Delaware State @ Loyola Maryland +4.2 138.7 65% 79–73 ✗
Houston Christian @ Rice +12.4 154.9 87% 56–65 ✓
Cal Poly @ Idaho +0.4 139.6 48% 70–85 ✓
Portland State @ Washington State +9.2 141.1 78% 61–71 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Tarleton State +12.9 137.6 89% 75–77 ✓
South Carolina State @ Charleston Southern +1.5 142.9 50% 64–66 ✓
TCU @ Georgetown -3.2 150.2 38% 84–83 ✓
Northwestern State @ Baylor +23.5 157.5 91% 40–91 ✓
Charleston @ Florida Atlantic +17.3 148.3 89% 74–90 ✓
William & Mary @ Richmond +15.1 149.5 88% 69–88 ✓
Long Island University @ Florida International +4.0 142.0 64% 59–74 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Abilene Christian -0.2 144.4 53% 79–74 ✓
Southern Utah @ Seattle U +6.7 143.8 80% 63–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.