I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · December 2, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread NAU -5.5 Home covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money NAU -200 / PAC +200
Model Predictions
Spread Total NAU win
Actual NAU +20 136 Won
Massey NAU -13.9 (+6.1)
Massey Totals 129.2 (+6.8)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 97%
Baseline Plus ML NAU -9.8 (+10.2) 138.6 (-2.6) 79%
Baseline ML NAU -9.4 (+10.6) 133.6 (+2.4) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML NAU -9.0 (+11.0) 132.6 (+3.4) 79%
Efficiency Plus ML NAU -8.3 (+11.7) 137.6 (-1.6) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 15, 2024 NAU 6057 PAC
Dec 7, 2022 NAU 7369 PAC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NAU PAC
Overall 14-19 6-26
Conference 7-11 0-16
Home 7-5 5-12
Away 6-12 1-13
Neutral 1-2 0-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L3 L23
Avg Pts For 68.6 64.1
Avg Pts Against 76.6 81.4
Massey -4.9 (#261) -12.6 (#342)
Bradley-Terry 0.27 (#162) -1.12 (#266)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.14 (#199) -2.17 (#289)
RPI 0.538 (#121) 0.461 (#234)
Shooting & Four Factors NAU PAC
FG% 41.2% 41.8%
3PT% 26.0% 30.5%
REB / G 30.0 28.9
OREB / G 7.1 6.1
AST / TO 0.93 1.23
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.0% 48.1%
TOV% 19.9% 18.6%
ORB% 19.5% 18.4%
FT Rate 15.1% 22.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 50.1%
Opp TOV% 20.6% 18.4%
DRB% 68.1% 73.7%
Opp FT Rate 32.1% 30.2%

Game Analysis

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