Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NAU -200 PAC +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +20 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -13.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -9.8 (+10.2) | 138.6 (-2.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -9.4 (+10.6) | 133.6 (+2.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -9.0 (+11.0) | 132.6 (+3.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -8.3 (+11.7) | 137.6 (-1.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2024 | NAU 60 – 57 PAC |
| Dec 7, 2022 | NAU 73 – 69 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 0-16 |
| Home | 7-5 | 5-12 |
| Away | 6-12 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L23 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 81.4 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#261) | -12.6 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#162) | -1.12 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#199) | -2.17 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#121) | 0.461 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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