Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -225 NAU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +4 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -12.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -9.8 (-13.8) | 150.2 (-8.2) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -9.1 (-13.1) | 151.4 (-9.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -8.5 (-12.5) | 152.1 (-10.1) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -9.1 (-13.1) | 148.3 (-6.3) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2024 | NAU 60 – 57 PAC |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NAU 78 – 58 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-10 | 6-8 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#186) | -6.8 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#281) | -2.01 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#259) | -2.84 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#319) | 0.431 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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