He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
Alex G. Spanos Center · December 7, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread PAC -6.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money PAC -225 / NAU +220
Model Predictions
Spread Total PAC win
Actual NAU +4 142 Lost
Massey PAC -12.0 (-16.0)
Massey Totals 160.4 (-18.4)
Bradley-Terry 88%
Weighted B-T 95%
Baseline Plus ML PAC -9.8 (-13.8) 150.2 (-8.2) 79%
Baseline ML PAC -9.1 (-13.1) 151.4 (-9.4) 80%
Baseline Tuned ML PAC -8.5 (-12.5) 152.1 (-10.1) 80%
Efficiency Plus ML PAC -9.1 (-13.1) 148.3 (-6.3) 77%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 15, 2024 NAU 6057 PAC
Dec 2, 2023 NAU 7858 PAC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PAC NAU
Overall 15-18 12-23
Conference 7-9 5-13
Home 7-10 6-8
Away 7-7 3-13
Neutral 1-1 3-2
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.8 72.5
Avg Pts Against 78.4 76.2
Massey -0.2 (#186) -6.8 (#298)
Bradley-Terry -1.15 (#281) -2.01 (#321)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.07 (#259) -2.84 (#322)
RPI 0.401 (#319) 0.431 (#283)
Shooting & Four Factors PAC NAU
FG% 45.3% 39.6%
3PT% 37.9% 31.8%
REB / G 33.1 34.1
OREB / G 9.1 10.9
AST / TO 0.88 0.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.0% 46.3%
TOV% 15.2% 19.5%
ORB% 25.1% 28.4%
FT Rate 21.6% 19.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.1% 55.9%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 17.6%
DRB% 67.3% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.1% 28.6%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.