Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Alex G. Spanos Center · November 15, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread PAC -5.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Under
Money PAC -230 / NAU +195
Model Predictions
Spread Total PAC win
Actual NAU +3 117 Lost
Massey PAC -13.5 (-16.5)
Massey Totals 150.8 (-33.8)
Bradley-Terry 86%
Weighted B-T 90%
Baseline Plus ML PAC -8.9 (-11.9) 140.7 (-23.7) 78%
Baseline ML PAC -11.6 (-14.6) 144.6 (-27.6) 84%
Baseline Tuned ML PAC -8.8 (-11.8) 143.1 (-26.1) 79%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 2, 2023 NAU 7858 PAC
Dec 7, 2022 NAU 7369 PAC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PAC NAU
Overall 9-24 18-16
Conference 4-14 8-10
Home 5-10 10-5
Away 2-13 7-8
Neutral 1-1 1-3
Last 5 1-1 0-1
Streak L5 L2
Avg Pts For 68.0 72.5
Avg Pts Against 77.2 73.3
Massey 0.5 (#169) -4.0 (#256)
Bradley-Terry -0.34 (#205) -0.41 (#212)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.65 (#217) -0.60 (#214)
RPI 0.510 (#173) 0.500 (#176)
Shooting & Four Factors PAC NAU
FG% 43.3% 44.6%
3PT% 20.7% 36.4%
REB / G 36.5 22.0
OREB / G 11.5 8.0
AST / TO 0.95 1.40
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.8% 51.8%
TOV% 14.2% 16.2%
ORB% 31.1% 27.6%
FT Rate 30.0% 10.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.9% 66.7%
Opp TOV% 13.5% 9.9%
DRB% 74.6% 58.3%
Opp FT Rate 37.7% 24.6%

Game Analysis

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