Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +800 ISU -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +19 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -16.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+40.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -13.0 (-6.0) | 140.4 (+38.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -10.2 (-8.8) | 137.7 (+41.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -11.9 (-7.1) | 138.5 (+40.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -12.6 (-6.4) | 140.7 (+38.3) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 13-5 |
| Home | 3-15 | 18-0 |
| Away | 0-11 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L20 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 61.5 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#259) | 18.4 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#316) | 0.78 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#297) | 1.32 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#229) | 0.501 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 26.7% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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