Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -10000 BUCK +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -19.0 (-28.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -17.1 (-26.1) | 140.0 (+3.0) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -13.8 (-22.8) | 139.8 (+3.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -14.4 (-23.4) | 139.7 (+3.3) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -14.4 (-23.4) | 138.2 (+4.8) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#88) | -7.1 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#206) | -0.86 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#183) | -1.46 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#228) | 0.455 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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