Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
The Super Pit · December 2, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UNT -28.5 Home covered
O/U 119.5 Over
Money UNT -20000 / MVSU +3300
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNT win
Actual UNT +31 127 Won
Massey UNT -30.4 (+0.6)
Massey Totals 123.1 (+3.9)
Bradley-Terry 94%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML UNT -26.1 (+4.9) 125.1 (+1.9) 91%
Baseline ML UNT -25.1 (+5.9) 127.3 (-0.3) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML UNT -22.3 (+8.7) 128.7 (-1.7) 90%
Efficiency Plus ML UNT -26.5 (+4.5) 128.8 (-1.8) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 19, 2024 UNT 8342 MVSU
Nov 27, 2020 UNT 11662 MVSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNT MVSU
Overall 19-15 1-30
Conference 10-8 1-17
Home 11-4 1-8
Away 6-6 0-22
Neutral 2-5 0-0
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 68.6 55.5
Avg Pts Against 64.4 77.7
Massey 4.3 (#103) -19.9 (#361)
Bradley-Terry -0.49 (#228) -2.02 (#318)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.00 (#193) -3.18 (#321)
RPI 0.463 (#231) 0.474 (#215)
Shooting & Four Factors UNT MVSU
FG% 43.0% 35.3%
3PT% 38.1% 27.9%
REB / G 34.4 28.3
OREB / G 10.8 8.9
AST / TO 0.87 0.44
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 38.6%
TOV% 19.7% 24.5%
ORB% 34.2% 24.6%
FT Rate 22.1% 20.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.0% 56.2%
Opp TOV% 21.4% 16.7%
DRB% 69.0% 59.1%
Opp FT Rate 22.6% 31.5%

Game Analysis

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