Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 119.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -20000 MVSU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +31 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -30.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -26.1 (+4.9) | 125.1 (+1.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -25.1 (+5.9) | 127.3 (-0.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -22.3 (+8.7) | 128.7 (-1.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -26.5 (+4.5) | 128.8 (-1.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | UNT 83 – 42 MVSU |
| Nov 27, 2020 | UNT 116 – 62 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 1-17 |
| Home | 11-4 | 1-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#103) | -19.9 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#228) | -2.02 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#193) | -3.18 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#231) | 0.474 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 38.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 59.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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