The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
The Super Pit · December 19, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNT -36.5 Home covered
O/U 122.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNT win
Actual UNT +41 125 Won
Massey UNT -35.8 (+5.2)
Massey Totals 119.1 (+5.9)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML UNT -35.2 (+5.8) 124.4 (+0.6) 91%
Baseline ML UNT -33.6 (+7.4) 127.3 (-2.3) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML UNT -23.8 (+17.2) 127.6 (-2.6) 90%
Efficiency Plus ML UNT -26.3 (+14.7) 127.2 (-2.2) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 2, 2023 UNT 7948 MVSU
Nov 27, 2020 UNT 11662 MVSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNT MVSU
Overall 27-9 3-28
Conference 14-4 1-17
Home 17-1 2-9
Away 8-5 1-19
Neutral 2-3 0-0
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L1 L9
Avg Pts For 67.5 52.4
Avg Pts Against 60.6 82.3
Massey 7.9 (#72) -23.7 (#363)
Bradley-Terry 1.22 (#83) -1.73 (#315)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.77 (#80) -2.54 (#321)
RPI 0.597 (#38) 0.496 (#179)
Shooting & Four Factors UNT MVSU
FG% 39.9% 35.6%
3PT% 35.6% 23.5%
REB / G 32.1 25.9
OREB / G 10.7 7.4
AST / TO 0.92 0.39
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.1% 38.5%
TOV% 17.6% 26.7%
ORB% 30.7% 22.4%
FT Rate 26.3% 17.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.7% 60.5%
Opp TOV% 24.7% 13.4%
DRB% 73.2% 58.5%
Opp FT Rate 34.2% 32.8%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.