Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -600 LIP +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -7.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -7.5 (+7.5) | 152.3 (-23.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -5.6 (+9.4) | 151.6 (-22.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -5.4 (+9.6) | 153.1 (-24.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -6.4 (+8.6) | 154.0 (-25.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 11-8 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#114) | 1.8 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#139) | 0.83 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#166) | 0.47 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#142) | 0.541 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.3% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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