Betting Lines
| Spread | CIT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +260 CIT -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +17 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | CIT -7.4 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -6.7 (-10.3) | 144.9 (+8.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -6.0 (-11.0) | 145.5 (+7.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -6.1 (-10.9) | 145.9 (+7.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIT -7.3 (-9.7) | 145.4 (+7.6) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2024 | NCAT 82 – 73 CIT |
| Dec 4, 2020 | CIT 78 – 70 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 4-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-14 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L10 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#352) | -1.1 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#322) | -0.85 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.82 (#313) | -1.51 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#310) | 0.408 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 27.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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