Betting Lines
| Spread | CIT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | CIT -165 NCAT +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +9 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | CIT -8.5 (-17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -7.6 (-16.6) | 138.3 (+16.7) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIT -5.4 (-14.4) | 142.6 (+12.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -9.3 (-18.3) | 141.1 (+13.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -10.2 (-19.2) | 139.1 (+15.9) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | CIT 85 – 68 NCAT |
| Dec 4, 2020 | CIT 78 – 70 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 3-15 |
| Home | 5-12 | 5-9 |
| Away | 0-12 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L24 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#151) | -0.4 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#229) | -0.55 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#233) | -0.65 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#261) | 0.515 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 16.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 13.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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