Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -5000 AAMU +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +19 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -9.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -9.2 (+9.8) | 143.0 (-6.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -6.2 (+12.8) | 147.1 (-10.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -6.2 (+12.8) | 149.0 (-12.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -6.5 (+12.5) | 146.2 (-9.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | VAN 70 – 62 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-10 | 7-5 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#322) | -11.7 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#260) | -1.06 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#252) | -1.41 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#254) | 0.404 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 35.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 35.2% |
Game Analysis
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