Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -2000 AAMU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -16.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -16.1 (-8.1) | 141.2 (-9.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -12.6 (-4.6) | 141.4 (-9.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -12.7 (-4.7) | 141.1 (-9.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -12.4 (-4.4) | 141.2 (-9.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | VAN 78 – 59 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#126) | -9.4 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#158) | -2.53 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#148) | -3.17 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#128) | 0.353 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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