Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
Worthen Arena · December 2, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread BALL -0.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money BALL +100 / BELL +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total BALL win
Actual BALL +9 125 Won
Massey BALL -3.0 (+6.0)
Massey Totals 129.5 (-4.5)
Bradley-Terry 89%
Weighted B-T 84%
Baseline Plus ML BALL -3.2 (+5.8) 134.1 (-9.1) 62%
Baseline ML BALL -3.5 (+5.5) 136.2 (-11.2) 64%
Baseline Tuned ML BALL -3.6 (+5.4) 134.5 (-9.5) 63%
Efficiency Plus ML BALL -4.4 (+4.6) 133.4 (-8.4) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 14, 2024 BALL 8682 BELL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BALL BELL
Overall 15-16 8-23
Conference 7-11 4-12
Home 9-7 6-7
Away 6-8 2-16
Neutral 0-1 0-0
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 72.0 67.5
Avg Pts Against 72.7 76.8
Massey -5.4 (#270) -2.1 (#216)
Bradley-Terry 0.09 (#179) -0.75 (#248)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.30 (#211) -0.52 (#219)
RPI 0.498 (#179) 0.456 (#240)
Shooting & Four Factors BALL BELL
FG% 46.1% 40.9%
3PT% 34.0% 34.6%
REB / G 33.4 30.7
OREB / G 10.4 8.0
AST / TO 0.85 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.6% 47.5%
TOV% 21.0% 17.1%
ORB% 32.1% 23.0%
FT Rate 26.4% 17.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.7% 52.3%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 18.1%
DRB% 73.2% 67.7%
Opp FT Rate 14.1% 21.7%

Game Analysis

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