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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–8 on winners
spread MAE 12.9
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Alabama
@
Jacksonville State
|
+6.8 | 136.7 | 74% | 52–70 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Fordham
|
+11.9 | 151.7 | 84% | 52–80 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
East Carolina
|
-2.4 | 145.5 | 34% | 66–74 | ✗ |
UMBC
@
Coppin State
|
-7.0 | 141.0 | 22% | 70–89 | ✗ |
New Orleans
@
Minnesota
|
+9.5 | 144.5 | 81% | 64–97 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Hofstra
|
+11.5 | 143.4 | 85% | 63–82 | ✓ |
New Hampshire
@
Sacred Heart
|
+4.4 | 145.4 | 65% | 90–84 | ✗ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Oklahoma
|
+25.0 | 164.8 | 91% | 86–107 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
UIC
|
+14.3 | 129.8 | 88% | 69–64 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Chicago State
|
+2.2 | 141.0 | 56% | 76–69 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
Rice
|
-1.6 | 160.2 | 37% | 78–98 | ✗ |
Tennessee Tech
@
North Alabama
|
+7.0 | 144.7 | 76% | 71–86 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Kansas City
|
+5.5 | 138.3 | 71% | 44–74 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Samford
|
+5.6 | 151.4 | 69% | 65–88 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Oklahoma State
|
-4.7 | 144.2 | 27% | 79–65 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Texas
|
+13.4 | 136.1 | 86% | 58–77 | ✓ |
Hawai'i
@
Utah
|
+2.2 | 145.9 | 58% | 66–79 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
UTSA
|
+0.6 | 156.4 | 50% | 83–86 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Oregon State
|
+4.4 | 140.9 | 67% | 59–71 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
UCLA
|
+15.1 | 131.9 | 87% | 65–66 | ✓ |
St. Thomas-Minnesota
@
Western Michigan
|
+3.1 | 130.6 | 61% | 65–51 | ✗ |
Charleston
@
Liberty
|
+8.7 | 143.7 | 82% | 76–67 | ✗ |
Houston
@
Xavier
|
-2.6 | 132.4 | 32% | 66–60 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.