Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ECU +130 UNCW -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -3.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -3.9 (+11.9) | 143.7 (-3.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -2.4 (+10.4) | 145.5 (-5.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.9 (+10.9) | 148.2 (-8.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -4.0 (+12.0) | 146.7 (-6.7) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 60 ECU |
| Dec 4, 2024 | UNCW 67 – 53 ECU |
| Dec 7, 2022 | UNCW 74 – 61 ECU |
| Dec 7, 2020 | ECU 88 – 78 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-9 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#313) | 1.7 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#333) | 1.51 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.62 (#334) | 1.50 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.357 (#337) | 0.546 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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