Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -280 ECU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +25 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -12.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -8.8 (+16.2) | 142.6 (+2.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -10.2 (+14.8) | 142.9 (+2.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -9.1 (+15.9) | 142.7 (+2.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2024 | UNCW 67 – 53 ECU |
| Dec 1, 2023 | ECU 74 – 66 UNCW |
| Dec 7, 2022 | UNCW 74 – 61 ECU |
| Dec 7, 2020 | ECU 88 – 78 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-4 | 7-10 |
| Away | 12-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#156) | -4.5 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#163) | 0.98 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#184) | 1.09 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#103) | 0.760 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 17.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 41.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 40.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 40.5% |
Game Analysis
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