Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | ECU -400 UNCW +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -9.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -6.0 (+4.0) | 134.8 (+31.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -7.5 (+2.5) | 138.6 (+27.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -7.6 (+2.4) | 139.2 (+26.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -7.7 (+2.3) | 138.5 (+27.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 60 ECU |
| Dec 4, 2024 | UNCW 67 – 53 ECU |
| Dec 1, 2023 | ECU 74 – 66 UNCW |
| Dec 7, 2022 | UNCW 74 – 61 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 2-10 | 1-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 3-4 |
| Away | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#87) | 1.1 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#60) | 0.65 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#68) | 0.64 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#197) | 0.558 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 21.2% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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