Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ECU -280 UNCW +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +14 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -9.6 (-23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -5.8 (-19.8) | 142.0 (-22.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -8.0 (-22.0) | 142.1 (-22.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -8.4 (-22.4) | 143.2 (-23.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -8.4 (-22.4) | 143.8 (-23.8) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 60 ECU |
| Dec 1, 2023 | ECU 74 – 66 UNCW |
| Dec 7, 2022 | UNCW 74 – 61 ECU |
| Dec 7, 2020 | ECU 88 – 78 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#126) | -2.1 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#143) | -0.12 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#154) | -1.12 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#122) | 0.516 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 37.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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