Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNA -250 TNTC +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +15 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -10.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -7.4 (+7.6) | 146.2 (+10.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -7.5 (+7.5) | 145.0 (+12.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -7.0 (+8.0) | 144.7 (+12.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -6.9 (+8.1) | 145.5 (+11.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | UNA 82 – 59 TNTC |
| Dec 16, 2023 | TNTC 70 – 67 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-13 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#231) | -7.8 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#167) | -0.40 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#175) | -1.08 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#148) | 0.483 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 15.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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