Betting Lines
| Spread | RICE -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | RICE -300 UTM +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICE +20 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -2.0 (+22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICE -1.7 (+18.3) | 161.0 (+15.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -1.6 (+21.6) | 160.2 (+15.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -2.5 (+22.5) | 163.3 (+12.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -1.2 (+21.2) | 162.6 (+13.4) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-10 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#317) | -0.3 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#309) | 0.71 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#300) | 0.26 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#184) | 0.550 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 45.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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