Betting Lines
| Spread | UTAH -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UTAH -700 HAW +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTAH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTAH +13 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UTAH -6.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTAH -4.2 (+8.8) | 147.5 (-2.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTAH -2.2 (+10.8) | 145.9 (-0.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTAH -3.0 (+10.0) | 146.5 (-1.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTAH -3.6 (+9.4) | 147.6 (-2.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTAH | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 17-2 | 13-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#34) | 4.2 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#111) | 2.01 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#110) | 2.74 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#111) | 0.575 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTAH | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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