Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | XAV +285 HOU -365 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +6 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -5.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -4.6 (-1.4) | 131.7 (-5.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -2.6 (-3.4) | 132.4 (-6.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -3.8 (-2.2) | 131.8 (-5.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -4.0 (-2.0) | 130.5 (-4.5) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 32-5 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-7 | 17-0 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 57.6 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#46) | 20.9 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#190) | 3.49 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#124) | 5.12 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#117) | 0.665 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 15.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 41.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 26.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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