Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
Pauley Pavilion · December 1, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UCLA -19.0 Away covered
O/U 128.5 Over
Money UCLA -2000 / UCR +1050
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCLA win
Actual UCLA +1 131 Won
Massey UCLA -16.6 (-15.6) — —
Massey Totals — 128.0 (+3.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 90% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 94% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UCLA -15.1 (-14.1) 131.9 (-0.9) 87% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UCLA -13.6 (-12.6) 130.2 (+0.8) 88% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UCLA -13.4 (-12.4) 132.2 (-1.2) 88% ✓
Baseline ML UCLA -14.7 (-13.7) 131.2 (-0.2) 88% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 23, 2025 UCLA 97 – 65 UCR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCLA UCR
Overall 16-17 16-18
Conference 10-10 10-10
Home 9-7 10-5
Away 5-6 4-12
Neutral 1-4 2-1
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.7 69.3
Avg Pts Against 66.0 72.4
Massey 7.3 (#66) -3.1 (#233)
Bradley-Terry 0.01 (#191) -0.89 (#252)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.34 (#167) -0.95 (#236)
RPI 0.454 (#245) 0.422 (#286)
Shooting & Four Factors UCLA UCR
FG% 46.4% 36.4%
3PT% 28.6% 32.6%
REB / G 33.8 34.6
OREB / G 9.4 11.4
AST / TO 1.13 1.45
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.4% 43.5%
TOV% 15.8% 14.6%
ORB% 31.3% 28.1%
FT Rate 35.1% 11.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.9% 53.7%
Opp TOV% 20.5% 16.8%
DRB% 75.3% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.7% 24.5%

Game Analysis

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