Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Lloyd Noble Center · December 1, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread OU -26.5 Away covered
O/U 158.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total OU win
Actual OU +21 193 Won
Massey OU -34.2 (-13.2)
Massey Totals 167.8 (+25.2)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML OU -26.4 (-5.4) 162.9 (+30.1) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML OU -25.0 (-4.0) 164.8 (+28.2) 91%
Baseline ML OU -30.2 (-9.2) 157.4 (+35.6) 91%
Baseline Plus ML OU -30.8 (-9.8) 163.8 (+29.2) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 12, 2025 OU 9569 UAPB
Nov 12, 2022 OU 6658 UAPB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings OU UAPB
Overall 20-12 13-18
Conference 8-10 8-10
Home 14-4 8-6
Away 3-6 5-12
Neutral 3-2 0-0
Last 5 5-0 1-4
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 75.4 75.7
Avg Pts Against 68.8 83.7
Massey 14.5 (#14) -13.5 (#349)
Bradley-Terry 3.19 (#12) -2.46 (#331)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.81 (#13) -4.32 (#344)
RPI 0.616 (#42) 0.384 (#325)
Shooting & Four Factors OU UAPB
FG% 50.4% 42.0%
3PT% 33.6% 38.3%
REB / G 40.8 27.0
OREB / G 12.0 8.0
AST / TO 1.18 0.98
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.7% 50.5%
TOV% 17.3% 17.1%
ORB% 36.9% 22.2%
FT Rate 25.6% 33.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 40.8% 60.6%
Opp TOV% 20.1% 20.7%
DRB% 72.4% 58.6%
Opp FT Rate 18.7% 27.7%

Game Analysis

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