Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Under |
| Money | SAM -165 UL +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +23 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -3.4 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -3.9 (+19.1) | 150.7 (+2.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -5.6 (+17.4) | 151.4 (+1.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -5.4 (+17.6) | 153.2 (-0.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -4.2 (+18.8) | 152.6 (+0.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2022 | UL 75 – 58 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 18-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#187) | 1.9 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#129) | 0.28 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#106) | 0.90 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#160) | 0.468 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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