Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UL -125 SAM +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UL -0.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.4 (-31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -2.4 (+14.6) | 152.2 (-19.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -3.7 (+13.3) | 156.9 (-23.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -3.3 (+13.7) | 157.1 (-24.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -3.3 (+13.7) | 158.5 (-25.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2023 | SAM 88 – 65 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#148) | 5.9 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#57) | -0.08 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#85) | -0.08 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#35) | 0.471 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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