Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | KU -155 CONN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | KU -3.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -2.5 (+1.5) | 147.6 (-13.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -4.1 (-0.1) | 146.0 (-12.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -4.4 (-0.4) | 145.6 (-11.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -3.4 (+0.6) | 146.8 (-12.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | CONN 61 – 56 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 18-2 |
| Home | 15-1 | 17-0 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#15) | 17.0 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#18) | 3.85 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.91 (#11) | 6.13 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#24) | 0.662 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 43.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 42.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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