Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -2000 SFPA +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -13.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -9.5 (-11.5) | 133.9 (+14.1) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -10.9 (-12.9) | 138.3 (+9.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -10.8 (-12.8) | 137.3 (+10.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -11.5 (-13.5) | 132.7 (+15.3) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2022 | AMER 66 – 55 SFPA |
| Dec 9, 2021 | AMER 83 – 73 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-13 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#272) | -12.3 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#285) | -2.45 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#296) | -5.19 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#279) | 0.391 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 22.1% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 40.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 61.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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