Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -10.7 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -7.1 (+17.1) | 149.4 (+6.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -7.2 (+17.2) | 152.9 (+3.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -6.1 (+16.1) | 152.5 (+3.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -7.6 (+17.6) | 152.3 (+3.7) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFPA 75 – 73 AMER |
| Nov 27, 2022 | AMER 66 – 55 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-5 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-16 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#347) | 0.7 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#309) | -1.19 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#305) | -1.47 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#342) | 0.444 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 13.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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