Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA -120 AMER +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +11 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -0.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -0.7 (-10.3) | 136.8 (-15.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.3 (-10.7) | 140.5 (-19.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -0.1 (-11.1) | 141.1 (-20.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -0.4 (-11.4) | 137.4 (-16.4) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFPA 75 – 73 AMER |
| Dec 9, 2021 | AMER 83 – 73 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#288) | -0.6 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#334) | 0.64 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.02 (#334) | 0.43 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.348 (#339) | 0.493 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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