Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UGA -1100 MER +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -10.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -8.2 (+2.8) | 135.8 (+13.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -7.9 (+3.1) | 135.2 (+13.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -8.3 (+2.7) | 134.9 (+14.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -8.5 (+2.5) | 135.1 (+13.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#146) | -3.4 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#129) | -0.72 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#150) | -2.52 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#58) | 0.439 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 35.2% |
Game Analysis
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