Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -800 DREX +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +2 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -8.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -7.8 (-9.8) | 128.5 (-16.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.1 (-7.1) | 125.8 (-13.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -5.2 (-7.2) | 126.9 (-14.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -6.1 (-8.1) | 127.9 (-15.9) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#38) | 1.8 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#65) | 0.01 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#58) | -0.22 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#32) | 0.471 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 41.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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