Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | OAK -225 PFW +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +21 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | OAK -9.5 (-30.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -3.6 (-24.6) | 147.8 (+27.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -5.4 (-26.4) | 147.8 (+27.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -5.0 (-26.0) | 148.9 (+26.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -4.7 (-25.7) | 149.0 (+26.0) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OAK 74 – 65 PFW |
| Dec 4, 2025 | OAK 101 – 92 PFW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PFW 80 – 66 OAK |
| Jan 23, 2025 | OAK 76 – 72 PFW |
| Mar 8, 2024 | OAK 75 – 65 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#64) | 4.1 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#81) | 1.42 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#99) | 1.56 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#51) | 0.555 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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