Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -900 NORF +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +3 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -15.7 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -11.3 (-14.3) | 135.1 (-12.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -12.3 (-15.3) | 137.3 (-14.3) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -13.0 (-16.0) | 137.3 (-14.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -12.7 (-15.7) | 135.8 (-12.8) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-14 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-3 |
| Home | 13-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#78) | -3.3 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#166) | -1.10 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#128) | -1.82 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#130) | 0.441 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.