Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | KSU -5000 UNA +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -15.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -16.7 (-15.7) | 157.6 (-8.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -14.5 (-13.5) | 155.6 (-6.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -14.2 (-13.2) | 155.5 (-6.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -14.0 (-13.0) | 157.0 (-8.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#85) | -2.9 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#112) | 0.28 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#118) | 0.18 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#159) | 0.512 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 16.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 42.2% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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