Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MONT -163 SJSU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -1.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -1.6 (+18.6) | 133.2 (-0.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -0.6 (+17.6) | 134.9 (-1.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -0.9 (+17.9) | 135.3 (-2.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -1.2 (+18.2) | 135.2 (-2.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2023 | MONT 86 – 75 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 13-3 | 6-9 |
| Away | 8-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#226) | 4.5 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#311) | 0.39 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.31 (#323) | 0.56 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#198) | 0.502 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 24.0% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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