Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | SJSU -130 MONT +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +11 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | SJSU -6.1 (-17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -6.7 (-17.7) | 137.9 (+23.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -5.5 (-16.5) | 139.4 (+21.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -5.6 (-16.6) | 138.4 (+22.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -6.3 (-17.3) | 140.8 (+20.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | MONT 75 – 58 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 1-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#158) | -0.6 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#196) | -0.63 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#186) | -0.74 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#270) | 0.523 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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