Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UK -2500 UNCW +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +7 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -20.8 (-27.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -14.3 (-21.3) | 153.2 (-0.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -16.4 (-23.4) | 151.5 (+1.5) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -18.0 (-25.0) | 152.8 (+0.2) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -18.9 (-25.9) | 152.6 (+0.4) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#14) | -0.1 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#51) | 0.44 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#30) | 0.13 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#52) | 0.518 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 42.6% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 2.56 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.7% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 10.9% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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