Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -200 TOW +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +13 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -2.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -0.9 (+12.1) | 125.0 (-16.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -1.2 (+11.8) | 130.8 (-21.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -1.5 (+11.5) | 131.6 (-22.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -2.2 (+10.8) | 126.0 (-17.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 2-6 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#212) | -4.1 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#276) | -1.20 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#266) | -1.39 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#260) | 0.436 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 41.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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