Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -4000 GRAM +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +30 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -28.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -20.8 (+9.2) | 138.3 (-16.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -22.0 (+8.0) | 141.0 (-19.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -25.3 (+4.7) | 141.4 (-19.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -25.9 (+4.1) | 135.1 (-13.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-0 | 9-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#74) | -16.2 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#32) | -3.42 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#36) | -5.16 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.681 (#8) | 0.293 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 24.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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