Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | WIS +120 MARQ -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -3.1 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -0.9 (+10.1) | 139.3 (-0.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -0.1 (+10.9) | 134.0 (+5.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -0.2 (+11.2) | 139.7 (-0.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -0.2 (+11.2) | 138.6 (+0.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | WIS 96 – 76 MARQ |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MARQ 88 – 74 WIS |
| Dec 3, 2022 | WIS 80 – 77 MARQ |
| Dec 4, 2021 | WIS 89 – 76 MARQ |
| Dec 5, 2020 | MARQ 67 – 65 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#59) | 17.2 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#79) | 3.73 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#63) | 6.13 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#94) | 0.692 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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