Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -1600 VAL +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -17.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -12.5 (-3.5) | 151.5 (-6.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -9.6 (-0.6) | 147.8 (-2.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -10.8 (-1.8) | 148.3 (-3.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -9.7 (-0.7) | 151.0 (-6.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | BEL 78 – 77 VAL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | BEL 78 – 74 VAL |
| Feb 13, 2025 | VAL 101 – 86 BEL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BEL 71 – 64 VAL |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BEL 86 – 61 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-11 |
| Away | 6-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#151) | -10.2 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#99) | -1.23 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#113) | -1.92 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#137) | 0.411 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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