Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -225 HARV +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +22 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -0.9 (+22.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -0.9 (+22.9) | 143.5 (-15.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -1.3 (+20.7) | 143.1 (-15.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -0.5 (+21.5) | 143.9 (-15.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -0.5 (+22.5) | 143.9 (-15.9) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2022 | HARV 61 – 55 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#198) | 6.0 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#156) | 2.20 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#140) | 2.87 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#167) | 0.636 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 41.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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