I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Lavietes Pavilion · November 25, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread LUC -3.5 Home covered
O/U 130.5 Under
Money HARV +130 / LUC -167
Model Predictions
Spread Total HARV win
Actual HARV +6 116 Won
Massey HARV -14.8 (-8.8) — —
Massey Totals — 133.7 (-17.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 97% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 98% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ HARV -7.0 (-1.0) 137.1 (-21.1) 78% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML HARV -9.9 (-3.9) 140.2 (-24.2) 84% ✓
Baseline ML HARV -10.9 (-4.9) 139.7 (-23.7) 83% ✓
Baseline Plus ML HARV -11.7 (-5.7) 137.5 (-21.5) 84% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 2, 2023 LUC 75 – 53 HARV

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HARV LUC
Overall 14-14 10-21
Conference 5-9 4-14
Home 5-7 6-8
Away 8-6 3-8
Neutral 1-1 1-5
Last 5 3-1 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 68.1 67.4
Avg Pts Against 66.8 72.5
Massey -0.9 (#199) -8.6 (#321)
Bradley-Terry 1.07 (#104) -0.90 (#247)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.77 (#142) -1.12 (#230)
RPI 0.548 (#113) 0.429 (#258)
Shooting & Four Factors HARV LUC
FG% 51.7% 44.2%
3PT% 31.0% 26.1%
REB / G 31.5 35.0
OREB / G 7.8 10.4
AST / TO 1.02 0.58
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.9% 50.0%
TOV% 20.3% 29.7%
ORB% 27.9% 31.5%
FT Rate 25.8% 25.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.0% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 19.7%
DRB% 69.3% 67.6%
Opp FT Rate 17.3% 32.5%

Game Analysis

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