Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | HARV +130 LUC -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +6 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -14.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -7.0 (-1.0) | 137.1 (-21.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -9.9 (-3.9) | 140.2 (-24.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -10.9 (-4.9) | 139.7 (-23.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -11.7 (-5.7) | 137.5 (-21.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | LUC 75 – 53 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 5-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#199) | -8.6 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#104) | -0.90 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#142) | -1.12 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#113) | 0.429 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 29.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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