Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LT -1400 NICH +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +13 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | LT -16.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -12.7 (+0.3) | 146.3 (-23.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -12.6 (+0.4) | 141.7 (-18.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -13.5 (-0.5) | 142.2 (-19.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -13.0 (-0.0) | 144.9 (-21.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 8-7 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#50) | -1.3 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#36) | 0.78 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#35) | 0.76 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#26) | 0.559 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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