Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -400 USM +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -12.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -9.2 (-12.2) | 142.4 (+24.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -8.7 (-11.7) | 141.3 (+25.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -8.9 (-11.9) | 139.9 (+27.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -9.3 (-12.3) | 139.8 (+27.2) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2024 | UAB 98 – 84 USM |
| Mar 14, 2023 | UAB 88 – 60 USM |
| Mar 3, 2022 | UAB 81 – 68 USM |
| Feb 11, 2022 | UAB 84 – 63 USM |
| Jan 9, 2021 | UAB 62 – 58 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#203) | -7.4 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#122) | -2.04 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#129) | -3.35 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#99) | 0.314 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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