Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -1200 USM +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +14 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -8.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+40.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -0.5 (+14.5) | 142.2 (+39.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.9 (+15.9) | 136.8 (+45.2) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | USM 85 – 82 UAB |
| Mar 14, 2023 | UAB 88 – 60 USM |
| Mar 3, 2022 | UAB 81 – 68 USM |
| Feb 11, 2022 | UAB 84 – 63 USM |
| Jan 9, 2021 | UAB 62 – 58 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -12.7 (#273) | -2.9 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#273) | 0.31 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.58 (#275) | 0.38 (#107) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | — |
| 3PT% | 0.0% | — |
| REB / G | 49.0 | — |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | — |
| AST / TO | 0.43 | — |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.2% | — |
| TOV% | 10.9% | — |
| ORB% | 40.0% | — |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | — |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | — |
| Opp TOV% | 8.0% | — |
| DRB% | 79.5% | — |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | — |
Game Analysis
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