We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Bartow Arena · March 14, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UAB -9.5 Home covered
O/U 155.5 Under
Money UAB -500 / USM +350
Model Predictions
Spread Total UAB win
Actual UAB +28 148 Won
Massey UAB -7.8 (+20.2)
Massey Totals 153.6 (-5.6)
Bradley-Terry 70%
Weighted B-T 77%
Baseline Plus ML UAB -8.0 (+20.0) 151.9 (-3.9) 79%
Baseline ML UAB -8.3 (+19.7) 152.6 (-4.6) 78%
Baseline Tuned ML UAB -7.1 (+20.9) 153.0 (-5.0) 76%
Efficiency Plus ML UAB -11.3 (+16.7) 150.9 (-2.9) 85%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 8, 2024 UAB 9884 USM
Dec 2, 2023 USM 8582 UAB
Mar 3, 2022 UAB 8168 USM
Feb 11, 2022 UAB 8463 USM
Jan 9, 2021 UAB 6258 USM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UAB USM
Overall 29-10 25-8
Conference 14-6 14-4
Home 17-2 15-0
Away 7-5 8-7
Neutral 5-3 2-1
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 80.0 72.4
Avg Pts Against 70.7 67.5
Massey 9.5 (#56) 5.3 (#95)
Bradley-Terry 1.62 (#57) 1.40 (#67)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.00 (#56) 1.53 (#77)
RPI 0.553 (#72) 0.587 (#28)
Shooting & Four Factors UAB USM
FG% 44.9% 45.1%
3PT% 36.5% 32.7%
REB / G 40.5 36.1
OREB / G 13.5 10.6
AST / TO 1.11 1.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.8% 51.2%
TOV% 17.4% 17.5%
ORB% 35.7% 30.9%
FT Rate 26.8% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 47.6%
Opp TOV% 19.5% 19.7%
DRB% 71.2% 71.3%
Opp FT Rate 22.2% 21.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.