Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UAB -500 USM +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +28 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -7.8 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -11.3 (+16.7) | 150.9 (-2.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -7.1 (+20.9) | 153.0 (-5.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -8.3 (+19.7) | 152.6 (-4.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -8.0 (+20.0) | 151.9 (-3.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2024 | UAB 98 – 84 USM |
| Dec 2, 2023 | USM 85 – 82 UAB |
| Mar 3, 2022 | UAB 81 – 68 USM |
| Feb 11, 2022 | UAB 84 – 63 USM |
| Jan 9, 2021 | UAB 62 – 58 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 17-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#56) | 5.3 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#57) | 1.40 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#56) | 1.53 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#72) | 0.587 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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